HCM – Outlook for Q2 2024
We begin the second quarter in the midst of a positive macroeconomic environment as growth appears stable, inflation is still falling, the Fed is likely going to deliver the first rate cut in four years and AI enthusiasm keeps earnings estimates high. But while this is undoubtedly a favorable set up, the strong rally of the last six months has left the S&P 500 at previously historically unsustainable valuations while investor and analyst sentiment is very bullish and, potentially, complacent. So, while the outlook is currently positive, it’s essential we continue to monitor the macroeconomic horizon for risks because at current stretched valuations and with sentiment very bullish, the market is vulnerable to a negative surprise.
Specifically, while it’s true that economic growth has remained resilient in the face of higher rates, some data is pointing to a loss of momentum. Retail sales missed expectations in January and February while the unemployment rate jumped to the highest level since 2022 during the first quarter. Neither number warrants concern about the economy right now, but both serve as a reminder to watch data closely as a continued economic expansion is not guaranteed.
Inflation is still retreating but the pace of that decline has slowed meaningfully. Core CPI, one of the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation, has barely declined over the past several months as it sat at 4.0% y/y in October and in February was just 3.8% y/y. Meanwhile, other anecdotal indicators of inflation have hinted at a rebound in prices. If inflation bounces back that will reduce the number of Fed rate cuts in 2024 and that disappointment could pressure stocks and bonds
To that point, markets fully expect a June rate cut from the Fed and three rate cuts in 2024 and that assumption was central to the first-quarter rally. However, those rates cuts are not guaranteed and if the Fed does not cut as aggressively as markets expect, that will result in a potential decline in stocks and bonds.
Finally, investor enthusiasm towards the potential for artificial intelligence remains a critical part of the bull market and strong earnings from Nvidia in February furthered investors’ hopes that AI integration will lead to a profitability and earnings boom, not just for tech companies, but for the entire market. However, that’s also not guaranteed and so far, AI integration has produced a lot of flashy headlines but not a lot of profit maximization for non-tech industries. If AI fails to broadly boost profits and demand declines, that will be a significant negative for this market.
Bottom line, we cannot let the currently positive set up blind us to risks and that’s why, while we are pleased with the market performance, we are also focused on managing both reward and risk because despite the strong performance, this market remains vulnerable to negative news.
Disclosure:
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of Mutual Funds and ETFs. This and other important information about the Funds are contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained at https://www.howardcmfunds.com or by calling 770- 642-4902. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. HCM Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/ SIPC. Northern Lights Distributors, LLC and Howard Capital Management, Inc. are not affiliated.
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HCM-052324-098 | 3385-NLD-05/23/2024